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In recent years, a section with the highest expectations from the budget has emerged, the middle class. Every time after the budget, a debate starts as to what this section got, how much was received and whether it was as expected. This time also when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the second budget of the second term of the Modi government on Monday, there has been a debate since then about what the middle class got in the budget. The middle class resented social media for not receiving immediate benefits. In recent years the middle class has increased its interference in politics. Especially in making Narrative, the most important role of this section is being considered. In such a situation, what is the political bet of the Modi government behind its neglect? Experts believe that all sections at once cannot be satisfied on an occasion like budget and the Modi government knows who to give to whom. But the Opposition sees a possibility in this and has started coming in favor of BJP to make a dent in the core vote.
How much will be the reform
In the budget presented immediately after the crisis of Kovid epidemic, there was a compulsion before the government to provide immediate relief, such as income tax. In such a situation, the government presented a better tomorrow’s dream budget for the middle class. The budget said that amidst the global slowdown, slowing production speed and dwindling demands, major steps will have to be taken on the employment front. An attempt was made to give a message to the middle class that at present the economic situation is such that if the government does not make major reforms immediately, then the situation can become worse. However, for the last seven years, the Modi government has been following the traditional route in the budget. Neither was the intention to experiment too big, nor was there an attempt to change the existing system. The schemes which were taken over by the poor, were more focused on them. This time, seeing the opportunity in disaster, the Modi government tried to placate the middle class through economic reforms. The government tried to send a message to the middle class that the biggest benefit of the reform would be its own.
It is also the mathematics of the government that the action taken this time may start to show its impact in the next two years, and then the 2024 general election will come to a close. But the way the economic projections were expressed, the situation seems unlikely to improve for the next few years. At the same time, the issue of right employment has also started coming to the center of politics, and middle class is also most affected by unemployment. If we talk about the political impact of the budget, then in the dilemma of the Modi government, the opposition sees a possibility. In all the political results in recent times, it was equally seen that the village-poor and farmers have been playing a big role in deciding the political direction. The popularity of the Modi government has increased among this section. This is the reason why BJP did not want to give any kind of burden on this core vote amidst the farmers movement. In such a situation, the government went ahead with the idea that it could take the political risk of angering the middle class and urban population for a while. The BJP seems to be in a relatively strong position due to the lack of choice in urban areas.
Opposition caught the nerve
On the other hand, there are also risks of offending the urban population and the middle class. The NDA government has suffered this in 2004. Then the NDA had to face defeat in urban seats in an unprecedented manner. Not only this, in 2010, when the UPA was steadily strengthening under the leadership of the Congress, the Anna movement was the first to get the roots of the government. The middle class was commanded by this movement. In such a situation, even if the Modi government has taken a risk consciously, it still has its own dangers. So far, the section which has been standing most strongly with the Modi government, it will be interesting to see how PM Modi lures him after this budget. The government knows that there will be many opportunities for course correction. Modi had gained huge support for this section by raising the income tax limit to Rs 5 lakh in the last budget just before the general elections in 2019. Anyway, he is adept at making shocking decisions when the opportunity comes.
PM Modi will also have an idea of middle class anxiety. It is also true that still this population’s personal trust in PM Modi is very strong. In such a situation, there may be many more opportunities to give some confidence to this population. But among them, the Congress found a way to make a dent in the section, which had completely gone away from it in a few years. Anyway, in recent times, the opposition has been planning a strategy to surround the government and the BJP on the economic agenda. This experiment also worked to some extent in the Bihar assembly elections. After a bitter defeat in the 2019 general election, the Opposition has now understood that the economic pitch is the only option to take on Modi-Shah. The opposition, which has been continuously pushed on the backfoot on issues like Hindutva or nationalism, has now shifted its focus to the economy. The middle class section comes first in advancing the economic agenda. It is now to see in which direction this battle of the middle class moves in its favor.
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own
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