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Gagandeep Kang
The sero survey, which came a week ago, shows that 68 percent of the country’s population has been exposed to Kovid. This number is much higher than the figures of the survey conducted before the second wave. It was reported from that survey that in some urban areas half the population, while in rural areas, a fifth of the population has been infected with the virus. The new survey is also an indication of how frightening the second wave was. But the news of the survey may not necessarily be good in the midst of the fear of a third wave.
Yes, it is definitely that a large population has suffered the onslaught of the virus. So unless a new variant comes, it is unlikely that the third wave will be like the second. But still it is a matter of concern. A third of people still haven’t got the infection or haven’t been vaccinated. This number is huge. With this, such situations can still be created in the country, due to which new variants may emerge.
need expertise
It is being said that the third wave can come in India between August and December. It may sound tempting to do such things, given the last two waves, but it should be remembered that working on infectious diseases requires an expertise. Such people have to closely analyze the data of the virus, the people affected by it and the place. Only those who are doing this can tell about the various aspects of the pandemic and the measures to contain it.
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For most of the models regarding Covid-19in the country, either the information is not available or the access to the information is available only to the government and selected people. We can only make a rough estimate based on the virus and its variants, infected people, immunity, susceptibility to epidemics and the environment in which the virus thrives. There are many obstacles in the way of making accurate predictions.
Today more than two years have passed since Corona. The original virus found in Wuhan, China had passed through the D614G mutation. After this, from February 2020, it spread rapidly all over the world. Then till December 2020 we did not see any major change. Alpha and Beta variants were identified at the end of the year. These variants made people increasingly ill in Britain and South Africa.
Why was there such a long gap between the variants? Then why is it that new variants came out so fast after December 2020? There is a theory about this on the basis of influenza. According to this, for the virus to change form, it is necessary that a certain proportion of the population is infected with it. This puts immune pressure on the virus. Since RNA viruses are always mutating, when some people are infected, the mutation matters.
Such a virus can infect more people, which can trick our immune system, preventing it from binding to the spike protein on its receptor. This virus will be more suitable for making people sick. Can we use this information to predict when and where new variants will arrive? Unfortunately, science has not made that much progress in the case of covid, but we do know that the more the virus replicates, the more likely it is to come back in a new form.
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This difficulty with variants is also compounded by the fact that different vaccines have different effects. Our limited knowledge about which vaccines prevent infection and disease, and which vaccines primarily prevent infection, adds to the complexity. The data suggest that the mRNA vaccine is effective in preventing both infection and disease. Vector vaccines are also good for preventing disease. However, due to some variants, this vaccine is not as effective in preventing infection. This means that people who have been vaccinated can also spread the virus, but less than those who have not. We have data from clinical trials regarding inactive virus and protein vaccines. This suggests that these vaccines are capable of preventing serious disease. However, little data is available on their ability to prevent infection due to different variants.
The ease with which the delta variant spreads suggests that we need to vaccinate a larger population to contain the virus. Since vaccination is still in progress, it is important to keep an eye on how we can get better results from vaccines. All countries are doing vaccination as fast as possible. However, middle- and low-income countries are facing a vaccine shortage. At the same time, about 40 lakh people are getting the vaccine every day in India, but on June 21, we showed that we have the capacity to vaccinate twice as many people.
long journey
Sadly, only a quarter of Indians have received one or two doses of the vaccine so far. We have a long way to go in terms of vaccine protection. And as far as the sero survey is concerned, it has already been said that a large population is still vulnerable. From the perspective of people’s health, it is a race between the virus and the immune system. If we can protect ourselves through masks and social distancing till the vaccination is 70 percent, then we can definitely avoid the third wave.
(The author is Professor at Christian Medical College, Vellore)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are those of the author.
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